Dept. of Geosciences Colloquium: Dynamics and Predictability of Weather Regimes over the Eastern Mediterranean

Zoom: https://zoom.us/j/97839169890?pwd=WVJUM0FsQ05KZHYyZFBXL2VtZGNhUT09

Abstract:

The intrinsic predictability of a weather regime or any dynamical system depends on its persistence and active number of degrees of freedom. Recent advances in dynamical systems theory allow us to compute these metrics for instantaneous 2-D maps of atmospheric variables (Faranda et al., 2017). We have recently combined this approach with a synoptic classification algorithm over the Eastern Mediterranean. It was found that the dynamical systems perspective provides an extremely informative tool on the intrinsic predictability and dynamics of synoptic systems over the Eastern Mediterranean (Hochman et al., 2019). The talk will discuss this approach and its applications in extreme weather forecasting as well as in climate model evaluation and projections.

Faranda D, Messori G, Yiou P. 2017. Dynamical Proxies of North Atlantic Predictability and Extremes. Scientific Reports 7: 41278. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41278

Hochman A, Alpert P, Harpaz T, Saaroni H, Messori G. 2019. A New Dynamical Systems Perspective on Atmospheric Predictability; Eastern Mediterranean Weather Regimes as a Case Study. Science Advances 5(6): eaau0936. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau0936

Event Organizers: Dr. Roy Barkan and Dr. Asaf Inbal